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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

But the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent underperformers ascending together. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still